2024: The Year of the Northern Lights?
On many social media traveling accounts and in the news people are claiming that 2024 “may bring the best auroras in 20 years,” i.e. it will be one of the best years to see the auroras (i.e. the northern and southern lights). But why is this the case? Where can you see the auroras?
Since the end of 2022, the number of sunspot observations have dramatically increased. These sunspot observations are a “key indicator of the likelihood of northern lights,” meaning that the period between January and October of 2024 could bring some of the strongest auroras in a long time. In 2024, the sun is predicted to reach its peak—the “solar maximum”—of its 11-year-long cycle. During this peak, solar activity is highest. This explains why next year’s auroras will be the most spectacular in 11 years. However, the last solar maximum in 2014 was the “weakest in a century” according to Mark Miesch, a research scientist at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado. This means that activity now is especially high, meaning that next year’s auroras could well be the strongest in 20 years.
The auroras “appear in a region around the earth’s magnetic north poles” which is called the “auroral oval” or the “auroral zone,” says Don Hampton, a research associate professor at the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska Fairbanks. However, this auroral zone does not stay the same and constantly shifts. These shifts are due to the fluctuating strength of solar wind, “a stream of charged particles from the sun’s atmosphere that can be strengthened by storms.” During solar maximum, these changes in the auroral zone area and its levels of activity happen more frequently. Solar maximums mean more storms, which in turn mean that the auroras occur more frequently, are more intense, and last longer.
In general, the auroras are easiest to see near the Earth’s North and South poles because this is where the magnetic field of the Earth is the strongest. However, according to experts, it will be possible to see the auroras even in places in which you usually cannot see them in 2024. However, for the best views, you should head to the northern regions of Norway, Iceland, Finland, Sweden, Canada, and Alaska or the southern part of Greenland. Nonetheless, because the auroral zone increases during a solar maximum the northern lights might be visible across Europe as long as you are in a dark enough place away from city lights.
In general, the March and October equinoxes are the time periods during which auroras are said to be most frequent. During these equinoxes, it is possible to see the auroras from lower latitudes as well. Additionally, the direction in which you look is important too. The further north you are, the more you want to look to the south or overhead. The further south you are, the more you want to look to the north to maximize your chances of seeing the auroras—which will most likely be visible in the form of a “faint red glow on the horizon.”
In order to maximize your chances of seeing the auroras you can use Aurora forecasting apps such as the ‘NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center’, ‘Aurora Alerts’, and ‘My Aurora Forecast & Alerts’. Nonetheless, pollution and cloudy skies can prevent you from seeing the auroras. National Geographic suggests using DarkSky.org to “escape manmade light pollution” and go to “certified international dark sky places,” which exist around the world.
Sources:
“2024 May Bring the Best Auroras in 20 Years.” Science, 1 Dec. 2023, www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/auroras-solar-maximum-2024. Accessed 20th of December 2023.
“Winter to Bring Best Northern Lights Displays for 20 Years, Scientists Say.” The Guardian, 6 Nov. 2023, www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/06/winter-best-northern-lights-displays-for-20-years-scientists-say. Accessed 20th of December 2023.
Goji , Cold &. “Best Time for Northern Lights 2024.” 50 Degrees North, fiftydegreesnorth.com/us/info-centre/best-time-for-northern-lights#:~:text=Norway. Accessed 20th of December 2023.
“Best Time for Northern Lights 2024.” 50 Degrees North, fiftydegreesnorth.com/us/info-centre/best-time-for-northern-lights#:~:text=Norway. Accessed 20th of December 2023.
“Northern Lights Activity Is Sky-High, and Scientists Say More Is yet to Come.” NBC News, 23 Sept. 2023, www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/northern-lights-forecast-diagram-graphic-2024-rcna99053. Accessed 20th of December 2023.
